By Jerry Jordan, Editor
AUSTIN, Texas – I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that it will be easier to bet the winner this week than previously this season because there are just a handful of drivers who are truly good at turning right and left.
If you want to bet only with the odds then Chase Elliott (3 to 1) is, no doubt, the favorite followed by Kyle Larson at 4 to 1. In fact, heading into this weekend’s race at Circuit of the Americas, those are the only two drivers in single-digit territory. Although Truex was at 9 to 1 odds in early betting, he moved into double-digits ahead of today’s race and stands at 10 to 1. That makes him a tempting pick for the win but I am thinking that Kyle Busch is probably the better bet of the two. Busch was on track in the NASCAR Camping World Trucks Series race on Saturday and was headed for a win before being essentially taken out and relegated to third. His odds are 12 to 1, per the WynnBet Sportsbook and that makes him worth my $5.
Given the fact that 2022 has been the toughest year, so far, to pick winners, I may book another loser but there are a lot of reasons to pick Busch. First, he is going to want redemption after Saturday and we have seen before that Busch is always a threat to win the following race when a win slips through his grasp. Second, he has been to Victory Lane twice at Sonoma Raceway and twice at Watkins Glen in the Cup Series. His four wins don’t compare to Elliott’s seven but it’s one more win than both Truex and Larson each have. It’s the payback that makes him the most attractive favorite for me this week.
Looking down the chart for a mid-level value pick, Joey Logano stands out as a strong option to go with at 19 to 1 odds on race day. In the early lines, Logano was at 22 to 1, so the WynnBet oddsmakers must have seen something they liked during practice and qualifying that caused them to shave his payback numbers a little. He does roll off the grid in sixth place, which is nine spots better than Kyle Busch. And last year, Logano finished third in NASCAR’s Austin debut.
Logano also finish second at the Daytona Road Course and seventh at the ROVAL in 2021. His outing at Indianapolis ended in disaster when the curbing at the track caused a massive crash that sent cars in all directions. Logano went nose-first into the tire barrier that sits in front of the concrete retaining wall at nearly full speed. So, it’s hard to use that as a gauge of his road course prowess there since he was running strong before the crash. But his odds and overall experience are why he is the value pick today.
Moving on to the longshot for the race, there are plenty of them. If you are looking for a driver who has experience on road courses, then Michael McDowell would be not only a great feel-good story, but it would be a huge payday at 80 to 1 odds. Then there is Aric Almirola, who is racing in his final year and has good equipment. He is at 200 to 1 longshot for the win.
While those odds are tempting, they are just too far out there for me to feel comfortable recommending this week. I am going to go with Kurt Busch. You may be thinking that I am nuts but hear me out. Kurt Busch is starting in 11th, which is four spots ahead of Kyle. They are both in essentially the same equipment since 23XI Racing gets everything from Joe Gibbs Racing and this weekend is a chance for Kurt to be a standout in the Toyota camp.
Since 2019, his performance on road courses put him at seventh among active drivers and he has a win, albeit several years ago in 2011 at Sonoma. Busch is 33 to 1 on the money and while that isn’t as enticing as Almirola or McDowell, it’s probably one of the best longshot picks in the paddock. In fact, he has had seven Top 10 finishes at Watkins Glen and six Top 10 finishes at Sonoma Raceway since 2013. In 2021 he was fourth at the Daytona Road Course.
Remember, my suggestions are based on what I see on the track and from past performances by drivers. There is no insider information and there are also no guarantees that the drivers I pick will end up in victory lane, so bet at your own risk and if you can’t afford to bet, then don’t. If you aren’t 21 years of age, you cannot legally gamble and if you have a problem with sports betting or other forms of gaming, you can get help at 1-800-GAMBLER.
| WynnBet Sportsbook Odds | |
| Circuit of the Americas Cup Series | |
| Chase Elliott | 3 to 1 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 to 1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10 to 1 |
| Kyle Busch | 12 to 1 |
| A J Allmendinger | 14 to 1 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 14 to 1 |
| Austin Cindric | 18 to 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 18 to 1 |
| Alex Bowman | 19 to 1 |
| Christopher Bell | 19 to 1 |
| Joey Logano | 19 to 1 |
| Tyler Reddick | 19 to 1 |
| Chase Briscoe | 25 to 1 |
| Cole Custer | 25 to 1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 25 to 1 |
| Ross Chastain | 28 to 1 |
| William Byron | 28 to 1 |
| Kurt Busch | 33 to 1 |
| Justin Haley | 50 to 1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 50 to 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 80 to 1 |
| Chris Buescher | 80 to 1 |
| Erik Jones | 80 to 1 |
| Michael McDowell | 80 to 1 |
| Austin Dillon | 100 to 1 |
| Harrison Burton | 150 to 1 |
| Kaz Grala | 150 to 1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 150 to 1 |
| Aric Almirola | 200 to 1 |
| Todd Gilliland | 200 to 1 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 250 to 1 |
| Andy Lally | 500 to 1 |
| Corey Lajoie | 500 to 1 |
| Ty Dillon | 500 to 1 |
| Boris Said | 1000 to 1 |
| Cody Ware | 1000 to 1 |
| Josh Bilicki | 1000 to 1 |
| Loris Hezemans | 1000 to 1 |