Bearden Breakdown: O’Reilly Auto Parts 300

By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor

Post-race review and analysis from the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Texas Motor Speedway. 

Who Won? 

Cole Custer. He surged past Tyler Reddick with contact on the final lap to sneak out a spot in the Championship 4.

Who Claimed the Stages?

Daniel Hemric and Custer. The two title contenders traded stage wins early in the day.

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On the brink

This season’s two best Xfinity Series regulars are in danger of being left out of the Championship 4.

With a combined 11 wins, 34 top-fives and 42 top-10s, Christopher Bell and Justin Allgaier have stood above the rest of the Xfinity field throughout the 2018 season. Only seven other drivers have even won a race, and none have triumphed more than once.

Allgaier and Bell came first and second in the regular season standings. Given their dominance over series regulars, the duo entered as clear favorites to earn spots in the Championship 4.

If Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. were the Big Three in Cup, then Allgaier and Bell were Xfinity’s Big Two. But unlike their Cup counterparts seem destined to do, both drivers might not earn a spot in Xfinity’s four-way title fight.

In fact, there’s a strong chance that neither will.

The pair put themselves in a hole during the opening race of the Round of 8 at Kansas Speedway, when Allgaier lost control of his No. 7 Chevrolet and drifted up the track and into Bell during the first lap of the race. The incident removed the playoff point cushion the two had gained with their regular season dominance, meaning they would need two strong runs at Texas and ISM Raceway to maintain championship contention.

Bell seemed destined to do just that after claiming the pole, but the Oklahoman spun out on the opening lap for the second-consecutive week. He marched back into the race with a methodical drive through the field, but lost ground on a mid-race restart and drifted back into the field.

It was there that a mistake from Austin Cindric led to contact that sent Bell careening into the outside wall. For the second-straight week, the defending Truck Series champion was handed a DNF and a steep loss of points.

Major #NASCARPlayoffs implications as @CBellRacing spins off the bumper of @AustinCindric. Heavy damage. pic.twitter.com/Ixh1tkBthN

— NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts (@NASCAROReillyAP) November 3, 2018

“Tough racing,” Bell said afterward. “This place is tough. It’s the toughest it’s been since they repaved it. I don’t know if it’s the tire combination or what.”

Allgaier didn’t suffer through the same crash-filled nightmare as his regular season rival, but the Illinoisan lost out on a chance to win when a pair of late cautions led to varying pit strategies at race’s end. Allgaier pitted, dropped back as others stayed out and rebounded only to fifth by race’s end.

The top-five allowed the JR Motorsports veteran to rise to fourth in the standings. But Cole Custer’s late-race heroics dropped Allgaier from out  of the Championship 4. Instead the three-time finalist faces a 12-point deficit to Daniel Hemric for the cutoff spot.

His relative closeness to the drivers ahead of him means Allgaier has a chance to point his way into the title race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. If the 32-year-old can run strong in the early stages — or if Hemric, Tyler Reddick or Elliott Sadler have issues — then Allgaier will have an opportunity to scrape by on points and head into the Championship 4 with a clean slate.

Bell isn’t so lucky. Next Saturday’s race will be win-or-bust. Two-straight crashes and Custer’s surprise win have left Bell 34 points out of contention heading into the penultimate race of the year.

Two seasons ago Bell secured Championship 4 berth at the expense of dominant Kyle Busch Motorsports teammate William Byron, who encountered major issues in the Round of 6. Byron dominated Phoenix and appeared en-route to victory, but a blown motor in the closing laps ended both his race and championship. Bell — then a rookie in the midst of a quiet season as he adjusted to NASCAR — snuck in on points and contended for a championship the following week.

This year Bell enters the last semifinal race at risk of being NASCAR’s biggest shock playoff elimination since Byron. In order to keep his championship hopes alive, he’ll need to accomplish the same feat Byron did last year – winning at Phoenix.

Points racing won’t likely be enough to make a difference.

Of course, Bell’s never been much of a points racer anyway.

“This format, it’s very tough and it creates a lot of drama,” Bell said. “I’ve always been proud of myself for winning races and I’ve won six races this year and I’ve got a chance to win two more.

“I’m going to go out there and try to win races. I’ve never been a points racer and my results show for that. I’m either up front or crashing. I’m going to go out and try to win two more races.”

Cole Custer’s late surge

The 2018 season has been a challenge of perception for Cole Custer. The Californian has set career-highs in top-fives (13), top-10s (24), and his 9.3 average finish to date is a full four positions better than he managed in his 2017 rookie season.

Statistically Custer’s been among the best in the Xfinity Series garage, but prior to Saturday he’d been overshadowed. Bell and Allgaier’s dominant stretch left few eyes to fall toward Custer, and Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Chase Briscoe each made it to victory lane before the 20 year old.

While quiet, Custer’s consistent speed helped him advance to the Round of 8. But a 26th-place run at Kansas left him well outside of the Championship 4 cutoff heading into Texas. His title fight needed a kickstart, and his season needed something to make it memorable.

Custer needed a moment.

That came in the Lone Star State.

A decision from crew chief Jeff Meendering to leave Custer out as the leader’s pitted late left the sophomore within sight of the lead in the final run to the checkered flag. He entered the last lap behind Tyler Reddick, but was able to pull alongside the Daytona International Speedway winner with a strong run off of Turn 2.

From that moment on the race was Custer’s to take. He overtook Reddick after contact, pulled clear of the 22-year-old ending into Turn 3 and powered off of Turn 4 to claim his first win of 2018.

“I knew I had to make it happen in turns one and two because it was just hard to pass in three and four all day,” Custer said of the move. “I drove it into turn one probably five car lengths deeper than I had all day and it worked out somehow.

“I was able to get him loose on his bumper and get to his inside and we were side drafting on the back stretch and got together and it worked out in our favor I guess.”

Custer’s strong year finally saw a marquee moment on Saturday, and with it came the Ford prospect’s first berth in the Championship 4.

Now he heads to Homestead — the site of his first Xfinity win last fall — with a chance to add a championship to his resume. Claiming the season finale for the second-straight year won’t be easy, but Custer feels his No. 00 team is up to the task.

“Things will change this year,” he said. “There is a different tire and different body rules. The track will be the same.

“We need to stay on our game to make sure it is good but I think we have the best baseline out there and we will do our jobs to make sure it is right and I will make sure to do my job to make sure I am driving the car right.”

Close call for Cindric

Austin Cindric’s first true opportunity to win his way into the Championship 4 came oh-so close to success.

The North Carolinian entered Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 well outside of the playoff grid after being taken out in Bell and Allgaier’s Lap 1 scrum. Without the hefty playoff point cushions of the other drivers involved in the crash, Cindric essentially dropped into a must-win scenario from the beginning of the round.

His first of two opportunities to secure a playoff-advancing win came at Texas. While he spent most of the day outside of contention, notable solely for the contact that may end Bell’s playoff run, a late-race call to leave Cindric on-track as others pitted gave him an opportunity.

Cindric entered the final restart of the race fifth, but managed to rise to third on the restart. He followed just behind Custer and Reddick as they collided on the final lap, and with any additional drama could well have surged to his first Xfinity win.

Unfortunately for Cindric, no more contact came. Custer cleared Reddick and drove off to the win, leaving Cindric to follow just behind them in third as the checkered flag waved.

The run tied with the Charlotte Roval for Cindric’s second-best result of the year, leaving the Ford prospect with much to celebrate after the race.

“After everything that happened today this is great,” he said. “I would have just been happy to finish the thing not in the fence. Every opportunity to be in the middle of something it seemed we were there. It is just perseverance by everyone.”

But while the strong Texas result was a nice moment, Cindric will still need a win to keep his title hopes alive to Homestead. He’ll have a difficult task ahead – contrasting his own need to win with the owner’s championship, where the No. 22 Team Penske team currently sits fourth.

“I don’t think it is checkers or wreckers,” Cindric said. “We still have an owners championship to think about. A lot of people are invested into this 22 car and a lot of success early on in the year. I definitely have that in the back of my mind every lap I do and the crew does as well. We are fighting for two things but a win definitely helps.”

Other Notes

• A host of top teams are in for interesting competition meetings after a trio of teammate crashes in Texas. Brandon Jones was the first to err, sliding up the track and eliminating Joe Gibbs Racing ally Ryan Preece just laps after Christopher Bell’s crash. A second teammate tussle came in the closing moments as Roush Fenway Racing’s Ty Majeski accidentally crashed teammate Ryan Reed, and a third followed when Richard Childress Racing’s Shane Lee and Daniel Hemric spun on the penultimate restart.
• Elliott Sadler’s final Xfinity Series season is marching toward another Championship 4 berth. The Virginian’s quiet Texas outing was enough to lift him 13 points clear of the cutoff with one race remaining. Sadler is still winless, but it looks like he might have an opportunity to score a walk-off title.
• Hidden in the field were a few success stories beyond the playoff grid. Tennessee’s Chad Finchum scored a 17th-place finish just one race after coming home a career-best 16th at Kansas. Texas native Bayley Currey finished a career-best 21st. Mike Harmon tallied back-to-back top-30 finishes for the third time this season – a feat he’d managed less than 10 times in the past decade entering this year.