Playoff Points: Dover I Edition

By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor

Following each regular season points race, Kickin’ the Tires takes a deep look at the current playoff grids for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, evaluating each team’s postseason odds and highlighting those that made steps in the right direction, as well as those who dug themselves into a hole. 

Track: Dover International Speedway

Event: AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Race Winner: Jimmie Johnson

Stage Winner(s): Martin Truex, Jr. (Both Stages)

Who Won Big

• Jimmie Johnson: Starting at the back of the field? No problem. Seven-time and Chad Knaus did what they do better than anyone on Sunday, winning at Dover for a record 11th time. It was also their series-best third victory of the year, raising Johnson to second in playoff points behind another big winner…
• Martin Truex, Jr: …This guy. Truex and Furniture Row Racing didn’t claim a race win, but they did earn their seventh and eighth stage wins – an impressive feat that kept Truex atop the playoff points standings with 18 points.
• Matt Kenseth: It wasn’t a banner day for Kenseth’s No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team, but their 12th-place run, paired with a poor showing for Ryan Blaney, proved enough to elevate the Wisconsinite into the current playoff grid.

 Who Hurt Their Odds:

• Joey Logano: Remember that encumbered finish penalty that cost Logano points and the playoff-clinching benefits of a race win? It’s beginning to prove worse than expected at the time. Logano’s 25th-place run at Dover continued a free fall on the standings that’s seen the Team Penske pilot fall within 28 points of the playoff cutoff.
• Trevor Bayne: Back-to-back subpar showings (21st at Dover) and Austin Dillon’s playoff-altering victory at Charlotte Motor Speedway have dropped Bayne’s small playoff gap into a 40-point hole. His Roush Fenway Racing team can still overcome the deficit, but they can’t afford poor runs moving forward.
• Ryan Blaney: The Wood Brothers Racing shoe dropped in the standings again due to another axle issue that relegated the sophomore to a 32nd-place result. Suddenly Blaney finds himself on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, with a strong Kenseth to pursue.

Playoff Standings: 

* One or more wins are encumbered

Where They Stand

(All But) Locked In

• Martin Truex, Jr., Brad Keselowski,  Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon.
  • Race Winners
• Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jamie McMurray, Chase Elliott

Safe (For Now)

More Work to Do

• Denny Hamlin
  • Not a bad day for Hamlin, but his 41-point gap has him one poor race away from potentially falling to the wrong side of the bubble.

On the Bubble

• Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth
  • Bowyer and Logano fall within reach of the bubble after finishes of 31st and 25th, respectively.
  • Kenseth enters the playoff grid for the first time in months, hopping past Ryan Blaney for the final position in the grid.

Within Reach 

• Ryan Blaney, Trevor Bayne, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Kasey Kahne
  • Blaney’s slow descent in the standings continues. Wood Brothers Racing now finds themselves just outside of the playoff field despite sitting 13th in the standings due to this year’s surprise winners.
  • At 57 points back, Kahne’s playoff hopes are slowly fading to a must-win proposition..

Likely Need to Win

• Ty Dillon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell,  A.J. Allmendinger, David Ragan, Cole Whitt, Danica Patrick.
  • Patrick re-enters the fold after scoring her first top 10 in two years. She still has a mountain to climb, but there is at least a glimmer of hope.

Playoff Points

Stage Points

Season Totals