By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor
Following each points race, Kickin’ the Tires takes a deep look at the current playoff grids for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, evaluating each team’s postseason odds and highlighting those that made steps in the right direction, as well as those who dug themselves into a hole.
Track: Kansas Speedway
Event: Hollywood Casino 400
Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Stage Winner(s): Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin
Who Won Big
- Martin Truex Jr.: Of course Truex won on a 1.5-mile oval. Of course he did. Truex’s fourth-straight win on an intermediate upped his playoff point total to a hefty 69. Three decent runs should get him to Homestead.
- Kyle Busch: Entering Kansas on the brink of elimination, Busch provided two strong stage showings (including a win in Stage 1) and did enough in the final stage to make his way into the Round of 8. Now he can reset in second, his championship hopes completely restored.
- Jimmie Johnson: His quest for an eighth championship may not be looking pretty, but it continues on. Johnson overcame two spins on Sunday to sneak into the Round of 8 after dodging the massive crash in the race’s late stages. Looks like that old golden horseshoe may still be around.
Who Hurt Their Odds:
- Kyle Larson: Life comes at you fast. Larson seemed to be a contender for the win in the early stages at Kansas, and was running as high as third. Then disaster struck. One blown motor later, Larson was left with a 39th-place result and a shocking playoff exit.
- Matt Kenseth: What a brutal swing of events. Kenseth appeared poised to contend for one of the final playoff spots when a massive crash – triggered by his replacement Erik Jones, no less – damaged Kenseth’s car. A mistaken decision to send seven men over the wall to work on Kenseth’s car moments later ended his day and, ultimately, his championship chase.
- Jamie McMurray, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Thus ends the playoff pursuit of two of the postseason underdogs. McMurray and Stenhouse entered the Round of 12 as favorites for upsets – McMurray on points, and Stenhouse with a potential win at Talladega Superspeedway. Neither came true, and both drivers are eliminated because of it.
Playoff Standings:
| Rank | Driver | Wins In Round | Points | Points Ahead/Behind Cutoff |
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 0 | 4069 | 52 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 0 | 4042 | 25 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 0 | 4026 | 9 |
| 4 | Kevin Harvick | 0 | 4017 | 0 |
| Championship 4 Cutoff | ||||
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 0 | 4017 | 0 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 0 | 4014 | -3 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 0 | 4009 | -8 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 0 | 4006 | -11 |
Where They Stand
(Photo: Barry Cantrell/NKP)
Safe (For Now)
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Truex’s large playoff point advantage gives him a mulligan for the Round of 8.
More Work to Do
- Kyle Busch
- Busch comes to the penultimate round of the 2017 playoffs with a noticeable advantage over the majority of the field. But one mistake could drop the Nevadan within reach.
On the Bubble
- Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick
Within Reach
- Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott
Likely Need to Win
Playoff Points
| Total Playoff Points – Playoff Contenders | ||
| Rank | Driver | Playoff Points |
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 69 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 42 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 26 |
| 4 (tie) | Kevin Harvick | 17 |
| 4 (tie) | Jimmie Johnson | 17 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 14 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 9 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 6 |
| Potential Playoff Points Earned On-Track | ||
| Rank | Driver | Playoff Points |
| 1 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 54 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 34 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 24 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 21 |
| 5 | Jimmie Johnson | 16 |
| 6 (tie) | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 10 |
| 6 (tie) | Kevin Harvick | 10 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 9 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 8 |
| 10 (tie) | Kurt Busch | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | Ryan Newman | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | Austin Dillon | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | Kasey Kahne | 5 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 3 |
| 15 | Matt Kenseth | 2 |
| 16 (tie) | Joey Logano | 1 |
| 16 (tie) | Clint Bowyer | 1 |
| 16 (tie) | Daniel Suarez | 1 |
Stage Points
Previous Race Results
| Stage 1 | Stage 2 | ||||
| Pos. | Driver | Points | Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 10 (+1 Playoff Point) | 1 | Denny Hamlin | 10 (+1 Playoff Point) |
| 2 | Kevin Harvick | 9 | 2 | Kevin Harvick | 9 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 8 | 3 | Brad Keselowski | 8 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 7 | 4 | Matt Kenseth | 7 |
| 5 | Jamie McMurray | 6 | 5 | Kyle Busch | 6 |
| 6 | Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 6 | Erik Jones | 5 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 4 | 7 | Jamie McMurray | 4 |
| 8 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 8 | Ryan Blaney | 3 |
| 9 | Matt Kenseth | 2 | 9 | Chase Elliott | 2 |
| 10 | Erik Jones | 1 | 10 | Jimmie Johnson | 1 |
Playoff Totals
| Driver | Playoff Stage Points | Stage Points: Round of 12 | Stage Points: Round of 16 | Playoff Stage Wins |
| Kyle Busch | 68 | 24 | 44 | 3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 63 | 27 | 36 | 2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 63 | 41 | 22 | 2 |
| Chase Elliott | 61 | 31 | 30 | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 52 | 29 | 23 | 1 |
| Kyle Larson (e) | 51 | 11 | 40 | 1 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 51 | 10 | 41 | 1 |
| Matt Kenseth (e) | 41 | 21 | 20 | |
| Ryan Blaney | 38 | 30 | 8 | 1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 26 | 20 | 6 | |
| Kurt Busch (e) | 21 | 18 | 3 | |
| Jamie McMurray (e) | 21 | 19 | 2 | |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (e) | 14 | 7 | 7 | |
| Austin Dillon (e) | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Kasey Kahne (e) | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ryan Newman (e) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Season Totals
| Driver | Total Stage Points | Stage Wins |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 489 | 19 |
| Kyle Busch | 329 | 14 |
| Kyle Larson | 324 | 4 |
| Kevin Harvick | 289 | 5 |
| Brad Keselowski | 272 | 6 |
| Matt Kenseth | 225 | 3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 217 | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | 205 | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 198 | 3 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 195 | 1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 157 | |
| Erik Jones | 152 | |
| Joey Logano | 142 | 1 |
| Kurt Busch | 138 | |
| Clint Bowyer | 100 | 1 |
| Ryan Newman | 75 | |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 57 | |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 50 | |
| Kasey Kahne | 41 | |
| Austin Dillon | 27 | |
| Danica Patrick | 26 | |
| Daniel Suarez | 25 | 1 |
| Trevor Bayne | 24 | |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 22 | |
| Michael McDowell | 22 | |
| David Ragan | 9 | |
| Paul Menard | 7 | |
| Ty Dillon | 6 |
Second time this year that Kenseth got hosed by Jones. He’s going to think there’s a conspiracy going on. But reality is that once again Kenseth’s pit crew is the weak link. He used to have one of the better crews but all the good resources are going elsewhere now. Sad way to see his career end, he deserved better.
And on another note, I’m sure Nascar could make the points even harder to understand if they work at it a bit more. That will net them even fewer fans, so fly at it Nascar big heads.