Playoff Points: Phoenix Edition

By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor

Following each regular season points race, Kickin’ the Tires takes a deep look at the current playoff grids for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, evaluating each team’s postseason odds and highlighting those that made steps in the right direction, as well as those who dug themselves into a hole. 

Track: ISM Raceway

Event: Ticket Guardian 500

Race Winner: Kevin Harvick

Stage Winner(s): Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch

Who Won Big

• Kevin Harvick: There went any hope of a post-penalty letdown. Harvick bounced back from the artist formerly known as an encumbered finish to claim his ninth-career victory at Phoenix. The veteran now has the playoff point advantage associated with two legal wins in three weeks, and he accomplished the second victory without his car chief at the track.
• The Busch Brothers: For the first time under NASCAR’s new points format, a pair of brothers combined to claim the two stages at ISM Raceway. The younger Kyle dominated the first, and Kurt played strategy perfectly to win the second. Both brothers gained a playoff point as a result, strengthening their case for a postseason push.
• The Rest of Stewart-Haas Racing: Harvick and the elder Busch brother weren’t the only Ford drivers that ran well in Arizona – the rest of Tony Stewart’s famed organization also delivered solid results. Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola brought home finishes of sixth and seventh to rise into the top 10 in the standings. Bowyer sits ninth heading to Auto Club Speedway, with Almirola just two points back in 10th.
• Joe Gibbs Racing’s Prospects: Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin both contended for the win at ISM Raceway, but it was their JGR teammates that may have made the biggest gains for their playoff hopes. Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones both finished in the back half of the top 10 on the one-mile oval, completing a pair of runs the elevated Jones to 15th and Suarez to a tie for 22nd in the standings.

Who Hurt Their Odds:

• Jamie McMurray: Another week, another unexpected poor result for McMurray. The 2010 Daytona 500 winner finished 26th in Phoenix, dropping back to 28th in the standings just a few months removed from one of his best seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing. There’s still plenty of time for McMurray to gain ground, but he can’t afford many more lost weeks.
• Paul Menard: What started as a positive weekend for Menard ended in disappointment after an early crash relegated him to 36th out of 37 cars. The veteran suffered his first DNF since Michigan International Speedway last August in Phoenix, a stat that dropped him to 14th in the championship.
• Darrell Wallace Jr.: The torrid tale of Wallace and Richard Petty Motorsports post-Daytona continues. Wallace finished just 28th in the Arizona desert, dropping back to 19th in the standings despite his early success in the Daytona 500.

Playoff Standings: 

*Technically ineligible due to missed races. Would require a waiver.
**One or more race wins ineligible due to post-race inspection failures.

Where They Stand

(All But) Locked In

• Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon
  • Race Winners

Safe (For Now)

• Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
  • The consistent drives of this quartet have them a full race up on the playoff bubble early in the year.

More Work to Do

• Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson

On the Bubble

• Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, Erik Jones and Alex Bowman

Within Reach 

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Darrell Wallace Jr., Chris Buescher, William Byron, Daniel Suarez, Trevor Bayne, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, A.J. Allmendinger, Jimmie Johnson, David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, Matt DiBenedetto

Likely Need to Win

Playoff Points

Stage Points

Previous Race Results

Season Totals

*One or more stage wins ineligible due to post-race inspection failures