By Mark Michalek, NASCAR Fantasy Expert
@MarkAMichalek
Well mother nature has not been kind to us this week. The good news is that we got both practices in so we should have solid practice to go off of this week. The bad news is that we did not get qualifying so the starting lineup is based off of points. This makes for another interesting week as we have plenty of options both at the front and starting in the middle of the pack. Martinsville is all about getting your dominators right since there are 500 laps that leaves us with 375 possible dominator points. While place differential is still important, if you miss out the dominator points you are dead in the water. Lets hope we nail those dominators and have success this week for the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Kyle Busch – $11,000 – 115.5…… Let me repeat that…… 115.5. That is the average number of DK points Kyle has scored in the last 4 races here. He has also lead 813 laps in the last 4 races and that includes a race in which he only led 3 laps. Fact of the matter is that no one has been better at Martinsville than kyle has in the last 4 races. He had the second fast 10-lap runs in both first practice and final practice. He also had the fastest 20 lap run in final practice. Kyle is my top play this weekend and there’s a good chance he ends the day in victory lane with the most DK points. While he might only care about the win we will appreciate the 120-160 fantasy points I expect him to score.
Brad Keselowski- $10,100 – Like I said above your going need to find the dominator points this week. Keselowski is basically 2nd to Kyle in almost every stat here over the last 4 races and while the starting position carries some risk, his history here is hard to pass up. He has lead 224 laps and average just over 76 fastest laps here over the last 4 races with an average finish of 3rd. In final practice he was 2nd in single lap runs and 1st in 10-lap runs but on 20 lap runs he was 10th. While the 20 lap average is a bit concerning the one thing we don’t know is the laps that those runs occurred on. I’m going to take the track history and the short run speeds over the 20 lap run. Keselowski should be in a great spot to score those dominator points we are looking for.
Chase Elliot- $9,900 – Chase’s season in a nut shell has been make or break, he has either been up front with a solid car or he has wrecked. The good news with qualifying being cancelled it puts us in a position were we get guys like Chase starting near the rear and he is obviously better than the 21st position he is starting in. In final practice he had the 15th fastest single lap run, 11th in 10 lap runs, and 7th in 20 lap runs. If you remember the last race here at Martinsville, Chase led 123 laps and was in position to get his first win until Denny Hamlin drove into the corner and basically used Chases rear bumper as his brake. Chase is a solid place differential and with his practice speeds he also has upside to score some fastest lap points.
Jamie McMurray- $7,100 – This breaks my heart to write this guy up. Last year I literally remember playing JMAC like 3 times. He is a guy that always seems to qualify between 7th-14th and normally finishes right around the area he qualifies in. This week we find him starting 26th and while he has struggled recently here at Martinsville, his practice speeds 8th in single lap, 7th in 10-lap runs, and 8th in 20 lap runs make him a solid place differential. I’ve already played JMAC twice this year and both times he has burned me so I’m hoping that 3rd time is a charm.
Ty Dillon- $5,600 – I have to admit that seeing Ty Dillon this cheap was kind of shocking. Looking bad at the start of the season I understand way he’s priced so cheap, he has been awfully slow and showed no signs of getting any better. However if we are planning on playing 2-4 dominators to lock in those dominator points we have to look at some of these cheap guys and looking at practice times Ty is far and way the fastest of the bunch. He was 14th in single lap runs and 15th in 10-lap runs so if qualifying didn’t get cancelled Ty would have most likely qualified a lot higher than his 32nd starting spot. Starting this far back we only need a 23rd finish for 30 DK points and with his practice speeds if he stays out of trouble he should be able to get that done.
Fantasy live- Well the Harvick train officially ended last week with him having the best car but somehow deciding to race Larsen a little to hard early in the race. Regardless you can hate the results but you can’t let it change the process. If harvick doesn’t wreck chances are he scores stage points in all 3 stages and finishes in the top 5. This week because of track position and the fact that we didn’t get qualifying in I am going heavy on the studs. My top 3 stud drivers are Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Brad Keselowski, for the non-studs I like Austin Dillion, Ryan Newman, and Clint Bowyer.