By Mark Michalek, NASCAR Fantasy Expert
@MarkAMichalek
“Kevin Harvick no matter what” For those of you that have seen the move Draft you will understand that quote. We head to Charlotte for the Coca-Cola 600 and coming into the week I think we all can say that restrictor plate racing at this track was a lot more exciting than the 600 miles will be tomorrow. This is the race that basically forced Nascar to create stage racing as Truex absolutely dominated this racing leading 392 of 400 laps. For DFS purpose that would be like an MLB pitcher pitching a perfect game and striking out 25 batters, or an NFL QB throwing for 700 yards and 8 touches in a game. The fact of the matter here is that the studs normally dominate this race
Kevin Harvick- $12,200- Coming into the week I think we can all safely say that Harvick was the favorite to win the race. Unfortunately for him, his car failed tech 3 times and he is being forced to start 39th. From a DFS purpose its almost never a good idea to play a guy on 100% of your lineups due to the variance of wrecks. In this case, I don’t see how you can fade Harvick on a single lineup. Harvick’ss worse finish this year in a race that he didn’t wreck is 7th and the only non-plate track that he has wrecked at was Phoenix in which he started 10th and in the first 38 laps before wrecking he had 11 fastest laps. For me, Harvick is the clear number 1 fantasy choice this week.
Clint Bowyer – $9,400 – Another Stewart Hass driver that struggled in qualifying and according to his team they just missed on the setup. Looking at the little practice data that we have Bowyer was he was 6th in single lap and 9th in 10 lap runs. Looking at his career numbers here it looks like he is average at best but if you dig into the numbers and look at just last year in better equipment he finished 9th and 5th. Bowyer should be an easy supply of place differential.
Erik Jones – $8,200 – I have to admit this play does come with some risk, as good of a driver as Erik Jones is we have yet to see him go out and dominate many races. Starting 4th you would be playing Jones for dominator points and he would need to get up front and lead some laps. I think in tournaments Jones is a great pivot off of say Kyle Busch making it easier to fit Harvick Bowyer. Jones was the fastest car in single lap runs, 10 and 15 lap runs in practice. If that practice speed carries over to the race tomorrow and he can get around the 3 guys in front of him early he could put up a lot of points.
William Bryon – $6,500 – The value plays this week are going to be the make or break plays. With Kyle on the pole and Harvick starting at the rear a lot of people are going to punt with the cheap value plays. The only driver I feel confident with under 7k is Bryon. He was 13th in single lap runs and 16th in 10 lap averages. At this price range if he finishes 15th he would score 35 points. While Chevy has struggled this year this team has slowly been getting better and better. It’s a tough week for value and this track usually plays out in which fast cars move up and we cant expect a ton of wrecks for the cheap guys to get free spots.
Fantasy Live- This week is all about speed. While I love Kevin Harvick in DFS fantasy live I can see not playing him. Keep in mind that this week we have an extra stage so those stage points are even more important. Kyle, Logano, Kez, and Hamlin are all solid plays. For the lesser guys, I love Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Newman. Good luck everyone.