By Cole Cusumano, Staff Writer
A return to Martinsville (Virg.) Speedway to settle the Championship 4 competing for the NASCAR Cup Series title means there are only two more opportunities for bettors to bank out with the most important betting stop of the day – The Money Stop, streaming now on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The Cusumano brothers are coming off yet another masterclass, in which they correctly forecasted eight-of-11 prop predictions and highlighted six of the top-10 finishers at Homestead-Miami (Fla.) Speedway. This includes Cole’s winner pick of Tyler Reddick and four of the top-five drivers.
Heading into the Round of 8 elimination race, all eyes will be on the six drivers not locked into the championship race at Phoenix (Ariz.) Raceway next weekend. What makes Martinsville’s status for this weekend so compelling, is the fact a driver fighting for a spot in the finale has won the last two semi-final races at the .526-mile track. Oh, and the six title contenders hoping to advance are all winners previously at “the paperclip.”
Here are the top-five shortest odds for the Xfinity 500 win at Martinsville Speedway as of the lines opening up on October 29, per BetMGM:
- Kyle Larson +425
- Denny Hamlin +450
- Ryan Blaney +550
- William Byron +750
- Chase Elliott +800
Favorites
When pondering the best bets for the race win at Martinsville, the conversation has to begin with Hendrick Motorsports. Earlier this year, the winningest organization in NASCAR history celebrated its 40th anniversary season in dominating fashion, after all four teams finished inside the top-10 and combined for nearly 60% on laps led in the event.
William Byron was the class of the field after leading a race-high 88 laps and what was a podium sweep for HMS. This win marked the second of 26-year-old’s career at Martinsville, making him the only driver to have multiple victories there in the Next-Gen era. In five starts with the seventh-generation car, he’s led the third-most laps in the series with 300 and has amassed a 9th-place average finish.
While Byron may have won the most recent race at Martinsville, that was also his most recent win in 2024, all the way back in April. However, what people are seeing now is a completely different driver from the one during the dog days of summer. Coming off a sixth-place finish at Homestead, No. 24 has gone five consecutive races placing sixth or better and has rivaled Christopher Bell for the best driver in the postseason.
Sitting just seven points above the cutoff, Byron will need a good points day and a clean race in order to make back-to-back Championship 4 appearances. Given his performance in the playoffs and Martinsville numbers in the Next Gen, he should be a strong contender for a third win at “the paperclip.”
Ryan Blaney is coming off a gut-wrenching runner-up at Homestead, in which Reddick ripped the high line and a spot in the finale at Phoenix away from the reigning champion. As a result, the Team Penske driver is in a must-win scenario going into Martinsville – a feeling he’s all too familiar with.
Last year, Blaney entered the half-mile oval under identical circumstances and won his way into the Championship 4, propelling him to his first title. More than just a miracle, the driver of the No. 12 boasts series-best numbers and sustained success at Martinsville.
In 17 starts at Martinsville, Blaney maintains a series-leading 8.8 average finish with over 500 laps led and two runner-ups, on top of his win. He’s only one-of-three drivers to finish top-10 in all five Next-Gen attempts (including fifth in the spring) and leads the field with a fourth-place average finish.
He’s done it once before, and coming off one of his best performances of the season, there’s no reason to believe Blaney can’t overcome the odds once again at Martinsville. The reigning champ is a lineup lock for GridRival’s Daily Fantasy contests at $18.6 million and should be heavily considered for any finisher props, including race winner.
Sleepers & Spoilers
It may sound odd to call Joey Logano a sleeper or a spoiler for the win at Martinsville when he’ll be competing for his third championship next weekend, but there are legitimate reasons for both labels. His +1300 race winner odds payout is a direct reflection of season-long inconsistencies, further evidenced by his win at Las Vegas (Nev.), followed by a 28th-place day at Homestead last weekend.
Lack of consistency is why Logano can be considered a sleeper – in addition to all focus being on the finale at Phoenix. The reason he would be a spoiler is because a driver not already locked into the Championship 4 won the last four fall races at Martinsville.
Right on par with his teammate Blaney, Logano is one of the other two drivers to place top-10 in all five Next-Gen starts at Martinsville. In addition to posting a second-best average of 4.2 in the current car, the driver of the No. 22 was the worthiest adversary to Hendrick Motorsports in the spring, finishing sixth with over 80 laps led.
Taking history into account, Logano’s 10.8 average and over 1,200 laps led through 31 starts at Martinsville are good enough for third-best in the series in both categories. He’s also won there once before, back in 2018. Given the numbers, he should be considered for prop bets and especially DFS at $17 million, per GridRival.
One driver down, but most definitely not out, is Alex Bowman. The HMS driver has been one of the best drivers since the postseason began, posting a 13th-place average over his last eight starts. That’s also factoring in his disqualification from the Charlotte (N.C.) ROVAL, in which he then failed to make the Round of 8, despite being one of the most consistent contenders.
Bowman was the only true driver to play spoiler in an elimination race at Martinsville over the past four years, winning the event in 2021 as a non-playoff driver. In the Next Gen, he’s finished 12th or better in three-of-four starts and is coming off his first top-10 in the current car at “the paperclip” with an eighth-place finish in the spring.
In 2024, Bowman has placed top-10 in all three half-mile starts. In his most recent attempt at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway, he finished ninth after starting from the pole. Although Bowman’s teammates in the playoffs admittedly have a better shot at getting the win, he should be a rock-solid play for a top-10 finisher prop and a safe pick for DFS at $18.1 million.
Values
Hendrick Motorsports has stolen all the headlines and praise in the Next-Gen era at Martinsville due to their dominance, but there is another non-powerhouse team that’s been right on their tire tracks – Stewart-Haas Racing.
In what’s been a difficult past couple seasons for the once dominant organization, speed and success at Martinsville are two things that have remained a theme for the Ford stable. With three-of-four drivers coming from unique backgrounds, whether it be dirt racing or modifieds, the one commonality is the trio have established a respected short-track racing pedigree.
Ryan Preece has silently been one of the most pleasant surprises during the later portion of the season. In finishing 10th at Homestead, the seven-year Cup veteran broke his single-season record for top 10s with his fifth. Not only that, three of those outings have come over his last eight starts.
The short-track ace has placed 14th or better with two top 10s in every half-mile race this season, including for his first time at Martinsville with a ninth-place day back in April. Preece won a pole at “the paperclip” last year and led over 130 laps before finishing 15th, on par with his 14.7 average in the Next Gen.
Preece should be a lock for all Daily Fantasy lineups at $16.3 million and for a top-10 finisher prop at +225, per BetMGM.
In addition to Blaney and Logano, the only other driver with top 10s in every Next-Gen start at Martinsville is Chase Briscoe. The two-time Cup winner enters the semi-final race of the season fresh off a 12th-place finish at Homestead – his best outing since his top-10 at Bristol in the Round of 16.
Briscoe has a fourth-best average finish of 7.4 with over 140 laps led with the seventh-generation car at Martinsville. While he placed 10th at “the paperclip” in April, he recorded his career-best finish of fourth at the half-mile oval in this race last year and came home top-five in both starts.
The driver of the No. 14 has a user-friendly salary of $12.3 million in Daily Fantasy and could be considered for top-10 finisher props. Numbers and logic point to Briscoe as the best value from the SHR stable, but Preece may be the better play, given his recent string of success.
Big-Money Bets
Big-Money Bets are more attainable props – such as top-10 finishers, winning manufacturer, etc. – bettors can feel confident placing a larger chunk of change on, as opposed to outright race winner bets.
- Chase Elliott (Top-Five) +110
- Ryan Preece (Top-10) +225
Better-Worse Finish
GridRival has a unique game – not available on sportsbook apps – where users can predict if a driver will place better or worse than the finishing position provided. Users have the luxury and flexibility to get creative by combining multiple Better-Worse predictions and Head-2-Head matchups.
- Ryan Blaney 5.5 – Better
- Bubba Wallace 13.5 – Better
Head-2-Head Matchups
Much like traditional sportsbook apps, GridRival’s Head-2-Head matchups are self explanatory. Users predict which driver will end up with a better result than the other. The big difference with GridRival, is the fact not all matchups are straight-up one driver over the other.
For some matchups, there are positional buffers, where favorites must finish ahead by a certain amount of positions, while the underdog can finish within a set amount of spots. Positive numbers mean the driver the user is picking can finish within that number of spots (i.e. +2.5 can finish within three spots of the opposing driver). Negative numbers mean the driver being picked is a favorite and must place x-amount of spots higher than the opposing driver (i.e. -2.5 must finish three spots better).
- Joey Logano (-3.5) > Tyler Reddick
For two more favorites, sleepers and values each, as well as prop predictions, stream The Money Stop podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
GridRival is a motorsport-specific gaming platform, where people can enter contests and make predictions via numerous unique methods not available on other apps. You can download the app here (https://gridrival.onelink.me/dLVy/kickine) and use the code “KICKIN” upon signing up to get a $100 deposit match, location pending.