Kyle Larson can secure his third NASCAR Cup Series championship at Martinsville Speedway and make the Homestead finale irrelevant to the title fight. NASCAR has already put his magic number at 59 points for Sunday’s Xfinity 500. If Larson reaches that total, no result from Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, or any other remaining contender will be able to keep the championship alive.
The route will start with a victory. NASCAR now awards 55 points to a race winner, with up to 10 points for each of the first two stages and an extra point for the fastest lap.
Larson therefore needs the Martinsville win plus at least four additional points from those opportunities. He could collect those four in one stage, split them between both stages, or combine stage points with the fastest lap. All it comes down to is the final total reaching 59.
The whole calculation holds only if Larson is able to earn the 55-point race payout. Meanwhile, the best any challenger can earn from finishing position becomes 35 points for second. That way, even if that rival sweeps both stages and records the fastest lap, the total reaches only 56.
Larson’s current 73-point cushion over Hamlin would therefore grow to at least 76 points if Larson scores 59. Hence, NASCAR’s scoring system will leave no way for a rival to overturn that margin at Homestead, even with a maximum-points finale.
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Talladega created the opportunity with one of the season’s biggest championship swings. Larson had entered Sunday just five points ahead after his Phoenix tire failure cost him a 34th-place finish. He then won at Talladega, added 16 stage points and scored 71 for the afternoon.
Hamlin finished eighth, while major crashes hurt Bell, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick. Larson left with Hamlin 73 behind, Bell 74 back and Briscoe facing a 79-point deficit.
Logano trails by 100, Blaney by 107 and Reddick by 126, leaving seven drivers mathematically capable of reaching the championship entering Martinsville. Nine other Chase competitors can no longer catch Larson. The gaps explain why a result below 59 could still end the title fight Sunday.
Larson does not necessarily need the guaranteed number if his pursuers fail to cut deeply enough into his advantage. In that case, however, their stage scores, finishes, and bonus points enter the calculation. Fifty-nine removes all of those variables.
Martinsville will give Larson a realistic chance to control the outcome himself. He has finished sixth or better in seven of his last eight half-mile starts, with ninth this spring as the only exception.
His 4.4 average finish there since the beginning of 2023 leads the Cup field, and he won his only Martinsville race in spring 2023. Hendrick Motorsports also owns 31 victories at the track, more wins by one organization at any NASCAR venue.
However, Hamlin will present the clearest threat if Larson leaves the door open. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has six Martinsville wins, the most among the remaining championship contenders.
He led 292 laps in March before Chase Elliott beat him to the checkered flag. Hamlin could win both Martinsville and Homestead and still need Larson to produce significantly weaker finishes, which shows how much Talladega has hurt his championship position.
Bell also owns a Next Gen victory at Martinsville, while Blaney has won twice at the track during the current car era.
But Larson refuses to treat those numbers as permission to coast. “I’m not getting ahead of myself at all. I’m not going to let you guys get me ahead of myself either,” he said after Talladega.
He pointed to how quickly a first-lap crash or a damaged radiator could destroy a comfortable points lead, so he is not about to take the chase points lead for granted. Crew chief Cliff Daniels shares that approach and plans to keep pursuing stage points and strong track position.
Larson does not have to protect 73 points for another two weeks if he can attack Martinsville, win, and find four extra points along the way.
If he finishes second, third, or farther back, he can still leave Virginia as champion, but NASCAR would then need to calculate what Hamlin, Bell, Briscoe and the remaining contenders scored. Their results would decide whether his advantage exceeds everything available at Homestead.
The Xfinity 500 will start on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, with the Cup finale following November 8 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. A 59-point day would make Larson the first driver of NASCAR’s modern Chase era to lock up the championship before the finale and the first Cup driver to enter the last race with the title secured since Matt Kenseth in 2003.
Martinsville therefore will offer something NASCAR has not seen in more than two decades. And Larson can very much arrive at Homestead already carrying the championship.