By Cole Cusumano, Staff Writer
Last Sunday night, it appeared Austin Dillon wrote yet another Cinderella story with a surprise victory at Richmond Raceway just four weeks before the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Except this fairytale finish had more of a “Shrek” feel, thanks to a pair of wild and controversial moves in the final corner of overtime, which sent Joey Logano and Denny Hamiln into the wall for the win.
However, there was no (complete) happy ending.
Typically, under the current points format introduced in 2014, a win automatically qualifies a driver for the postseason. However, NASCAR revoked their playoff berth and docked them 25 points, as well as suspended spotter Brandon Benesch for three races after he issued orders to wreck both Logano and Hamlin coming to the finish.
With the penalty being handed down three days later, Dillon still got to reap the benefits of celebrating with his family and team at the track. As a major consolation, he’s still on record as the winner. He also wasn’t suspended after right-hooking Hamlin – something Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace were reprimanded for over the past two years.
While the grandson of Richard Childress isn’t currently in the postseason, he was still a first-time winner with four races until the playoffs, raising the question: Could there be another in the final three regular season races?
In the Next-Gen era, there has been at least one first-time winner in the final four regular season races. Last year, there was Michael McDowell’s dominant victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. During the inaugural campaign of the seventh-generation car, Dillon actually won and locked into the Round of 16 in the cutoff race at Daytona International Speedway. Expanded further, in that same four-race sample size, there’s been a new winner over five of the last six seasons.
Given the nature of the three tracks coming up, the complexion of this season, the challenges associated with piloting the seventh generation car, as well as the pressures of making the playoffs, it’s not a question of if it’s reasonable to expect another first-time winner in 2024, but who can be the next.
Factoring in history, recency and observations from the 23 races this season, here are the most likely long shot candidates to win at Michigan International Speedway, Daytona and Darlington Raceway.
Michigan International Speedway – Erik Jones
By the way Erik Jones’ eighth full-time Cup campaign is going, one may not expect to hear his name as the next potential surprise winner. His only top-10 came in the season opener at Daytona, he missed two starts due to a spinal fracture and he’s currently posting a career-worst 22.5 average. Yet there’s been good fortune as of late.
Legacy Motor Club announced earlier this week Jones would return to the freshly-branded team in 2025 and beyond on a multi-year contract extension. While it has to feel good The Club is investing in him – on top of going into his home track fresh off this news – there’s more to it than that.
When “That Jones Boy” is good at a certain track, he’s really good at that track, and Michigan International Speedway has been one of those recently.
Two of Jones’ three career top-10s at Michigan have come in both Next Gen starts, where he’s only one of five drivers who can say they’ve done the same. He also has a career-best finish of third at the two-mile track, which came back in 2017.
Jones may be an ambitious long shot bet (100-1) for the Fire Keepers Casino 400, but factoring in recency, brighter days and a homecoming, he emerges as a top candidate. Just remember his name as an even stronger threat for the other tracks that will be mentioned.
Daytona International Speedway – Anyone!
It sounds cliche, but literally anyone can win at Daytona. Anyone from series-best Kyle Larson, to Parker Retzlaff making his second Cup start. In fact, The World Center of Racing has produced a different winner in the last seven races. But there are some drivers who are genuinely skilled on superspeedways.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is always a volatile threat to win Daytona – a place he’s actually a two-time winner (including the 2023 Daytona 500). He also has a win at Talladega (Ala.), where he placed fourth earlier this year.
Corey LaJoie is also a popular name whenever the circuit gets to a superspeedway. He’s finished a career-best fourth on three occasions – each came at the three drafting tracks on the circuit, and within the last two seasons. He actually finished fourth in this year’s Daytona 500 and has back-to-back top-10s there. Keep in mind, LaJoie will not be returning to Spire Motorsports next year and has an uncertain future. A win would certainly improve his situation.
How about an obscure long shot in Zane Smith? The rookie finished a respectable 13th in both Cup starts at Daytona, and he won there twice in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. Don’t forget about Jones, who also went to victory lane at the 2.5-mile track in 2018.
Darlington Raceway Erik Jones (again) & Justin Haley
Spoiler alert: Jones’ name is mentioned again. Having brought up his name for Michigan, Daytona, and now Darlington, that would have to make the 28-year-old the overall most likely to surprise for a win to close out the regular season.
Darlington just so happens to be Jones’ best track on the circuit. Standing the test of time and many changes, he’s a two-time winner at the track nicknamed “Too Tough to Tame” – first in 2019, then in the Next Gen car’s 2022 maiden season. In 13 starts, the driver of the No. 43 has a 61.5% top-10 rate and the fourth-best average among active drivers at 12.4.
To give one more true long shot, let’s go with Rick Ware Racing’s Justin Haley. The 25-year-old placed ninth at Darlington in the spring and has finished top-10 in three-of-five Next Gen starts with a career-best third-place finish and 12.6 average. Seeing the driver of the No. 51 in victory lane seems surreal, but his stats speak for themselves, and as the eyes of the world saw at Richmond, seemingly anything can happen.