By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor
Post-race review and analysis from the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at Dover International Speedway.
Who Won?
Chase Elliott. He climbed through the field after an early uncontrolled tire penalty and held on with old tires through two late restarts to score his second Cup victory.
Who Claimed the Stages?
Kevin Harvick. The spring Dover winter dominated the early stages and seemed to be the driver to beat until a costly mistake on pit road trapped him back in the field.
Top Stories
Missed opportunities
Have one car strong enough to win a Cup race is good for any team.
Two is great.
Three is incredible.
Four? That’s the sort of result a team dreams of.
That very dream came true for Stewart-Haas Racing on Sunday. But it quickly became a nightmare as the laps wound down.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch led the field to green and paced the opening laps after qualifying was rained out, but it was Kevin Harvick that proved the dominant driver for the majority of the day. Harvick overtook Busch for the lead on Lap 16 and proceeded to put on a clinic, dominating the opening two stages and leading more laps (286) than he had in the prior 13 races combined.
There were a host of challengers. Joey Logano showed pace at the end of Stage 1. Teammate Clint Bowyer nearly overtook Harvick at the end of Stage 2. Brad Keselowski led briefly after taking the lead on pit road, and Aric Almirola held pace with the 2014 Cup champion early in the final stage.
But Harvick’s Ford proved too much to overcome regardless of his competitor. By the time the race entered the final 100 laps, it was clear that the No. 4 team would need to beat themselves for anyone else to have a realistic chance at a win.
Wouldn’t you know, that’s exactly what they did.
When Harvick came to pit road for what he intended to be his final stop on Lap 321, his team mistakenly broke a valve stem on his left-rear tire. That forced Harvick back to pit road a second time, trapping him a lap down. The 2014 Cup champ got back on the lead lap with the free pass after a debris caution on Lap 340, but was mired too far back in the pack to recover with the limited laps remaining.
Harvick’s issues left the battle for the win to be settled by his SHR teammates. Almirola inherited the lead after pit stops cycled through, with Bowyer and Kurt Busch not far behind. Bowyer faded back after the debris caution, but Almirola and Busch separated themselves from the field over the course of the ensuing run.
With the laps winding down Almirola seemed poised to drive off to his first win with SHR. Busch stalked the Floridian around the track, but Almirola was able to keep the 2004 Cup champion at bay.
The finish was in sight. But just as it was drawing near, a caution flag flew with eight to go.
After dominating the last stint, Almirola and Busch were in trouble. And here’s the kicker – the cause of the caution that hurt their race was their teammate, Bowyer. A brutal green-flag run saw Bowyer blow a tire, pit and still end up in the wall moments later.
“We broke and I hit the wall,” Bowyer said. “I’m just really disappointed. I’m frustrated with our day, obviously, we had a very fast race car.
“I got tore up passing a lapper and then all of a sudden we had a loose wheel, I think it was a loose wheel, and then we went back out and broke something in the front end and it was two different things.”
The subsequent caution saw varying pit strategies, with three drivers staying out and a few others taking two tires. After battling for the lead moments earlier, Almirola and Busch came to the ensuing restart in sixth and seventh, respectively.
Almirola still saw an opportunity to go for the win from the third row, but he smacked the wall coming off of Turn 2 on the restart and crashed into Brad Keselowski, instigating a late crash that yielded a brief red flag and also collected fellow playoff contenders Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman.
The crash brought an end to what little hopes SHR still had of bringing home a Dover victory.
Bowyer was out. Busch and Harvick were mired too deep in the field. Almirola continued on after the wreck, but his chance to win and secure a place in the Round of 8 was gone.
Instead it was Chase Elliott — who spent most of the afternoon outside of the top five after an early pit road penalty — that pulled into victory lane after fending off Denny Hamlin.
The highest finishing SHR car was Busch in fifth. Harvick followed in sixth, while Almirola and Bowyer finished in 13th and 35th, respectively. After combining to lead 351 of the race’s 404 laps, the quartet were left to soak in the bitter disappointment of a win given away.
Busch was the happiest of the melancholy group, having salvaged a top five that made playoff gains despite not leading a single lap on the day.
“I was giving it all I had chasing down Almirola, then the yellow comes out, and from there it just changed the course of everything,” Busch said. “It’s not even a ripple effect, it’s a tidal wave of things that happen.
“Once one yellow comes out, that goes against what everybody thought was going to happen, so Almirola could have won, we could have finished second. We ended up fifth. We have nothing to complain about.”
Harvick had a solid points day, sweeping the opening stages and scoring a race-high 51 points. But the Californian found little joy in his sixth-place run after letting a win slip away.
“I don’t really care about points,” he said. “I’d rather win.”
While Busch and Harvick were disappointed, they both left Dover with their playoff runs intact. The disappointing finishes for Almirola and Bowyer meant that they exited the Round of 12 opener outside of the current cutoff for the Round of 8. They both sit 10 points behind eighth-place Ryan Blaney heading to Talladega Superspeedway.
Almirola’s frustration was palpable after letting another win slip away, as illustrated by a photo from NBC Sports’ Dustin Long shared in the moments after the race.
“We’ve had so many opportunities and been so close and had the car to win and been in position and I don’t know, it just seems to not come through,” Almirola said. “I don’t know. I’m frustrated and mad and angry.”
Bowyer shared Almirola’s crestfallen nature, having both lost ground in the championship and ruined his teammates’ days with his trip into the outside wall.
“I’m just sick for Aric,” he said. “He had that race won. It was his win and unfortunately his teammate had trouble and took him out of it.”
The streak continues
The Cup Series has seen a host of changes since the beginning of the 2006 season. The tour has changed cars twice, playoff formats a handful of times and rules packages more often than anyone can remember.
But one thing has stayed consistent along the way – Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin pulling into victory lane.
Until this season, that is.
Johnson and Hamlin have been consistent winners throughout their Cup careers, each scoring one or more wins during every season they’ve ran full-time. The pair entered 2018 with 96 wins shared between them over the past 12 seasons, with Johnson scoring an additional 18 wins in the four seasons before Hamlin joined him at the Cup level.
Both drivers had seen peaks and valleys along the way, but through them all they’d combined to win at least three races in each season they both contested prior to 2018.
| Year | Jimmie Johnson Wins | Denny Hamlin Wins | Total Wins |
| 2006 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 2007 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 2008 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 2009 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 2010 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2012 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 2013 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 2015 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 2016 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 2017 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
By comparison this year has been a struggle. Johnson has experienced arguably the worst season of his Cup career, with the Californian on pace for career-low marks in average finish (17.2), laps led (29), top-fives (two) and potentially top 10s (10).
Hamlin hasn’t had his worst year to date — that goes to his injury-shortened 2013, or 2011 if you don’t care to count that year — but he’s at or near five-year lows for every statistic outside of top-fives (eight) and poles (three).
The pair still earned playoff bids by virtue of their consistency. But they suffered Round of 16 exits after a subpar trio of races to open the postseason.
Playoff losses aside, both Johnson and Hamlin have seen slight returns to form in recent weeks. Johnson put together arguably his best drive of the season at the unpredictable Charlotte Roval, running up front for the majority of the race and placing himself in contention to win.
But the effort proved to be for naught. Johnson made a late mistake under braking, spinning out of the battle for the win — and the playoffs — while taking leader Martin Truex Jr. with him.
The result was a rare moment of heartbreak for the No. 48 team. Johnson had positioned himself for the sort of late-race heroics that have defined his Hall of Fame career, but by making a season-altering mistake at the end of the race the 43-year-old added a symbolic moment to what might be the worst season of his Cup tenure.
There we hopes that the veteran could bounce back the following week at Dover — which is arguably his best track — but a mistake in his No. 48 car’s setup left Johnson heading to the garage before the green flag even flew for repairs. One week after he’d been challenging for the lead and playoff continuity, Johnson was an afterthought at a track he’s conquered 11 times.
While Johnson faltered, Hamlin rose into contention. The Virginian claimed a place toward the front of the field with the laps winding down, and even found himself on the front row heading into the final restart after a successful two-tire pit strategy from his No. 11 team.
With Elliott’s reputation for poor restarts and Hamlin’s fresh rubber, the 2016 Daytona 500 champion seemed poised to deliver Joe Gibbs Racing a win. But in the end he couldn’t capitalize. Elliott had one of the best restarts of his career, and Hamlin could only watch on from second as the Georgian drove off to his first oval win.
“We ran a 23.70 on that last lap,” Hamlin said afterward. “On older tires, that’s amazing. I ran as hard as I could through 1 and 2. Then through 3 and 4, I couldn’t get beside him there.”
And so the winless streak for two of this era’s most consistent victors continues. Both Johnson and Hamlin have drawn close in recent weeks, but that elusive trip to victory lane continues to evade them.
Their next chance at a victory will come at Talladega, where they’ve each won in the past. Hamlin’s lone triumph came in the sprint 2014 race, while Johnson’s two victories came before Gen-6 car’s arrival – in 2006 and 2011.
Other Notes
- Joey Logano has yet to win a Cup championship, but he’s excellent at doing the little things it takes to place himself in contention. The 2015 Daytona 500 winner scored 50 points in Dover to rise 31 points clear of the current Round of 8 cutoff heading to Talladega. Logano has finished outside of the top 15 just four times in his 34 playoff starts to date under the elimination format, with two Championship 4 berths and three trips to the Round of 8.
- Hamlin and Erik Jones each slotted in the top five at Dover, seemingly returning to form after a dismal Round of 16 where both drivers were eliminated from playoff contention. Neither driver will claim a title this year, but they could both play spoiler and claim a race win in the final six races of the season.
- Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. had to be thankful for their playoff point totals after crashing and finishing 14th and 15th, respectively, at the Monster Mile. Both drivers remained on the right side of the playoff bubble by healthy margins despite their subpar results – a position earned with their seven combined wins this season.
- Alex Bowman’s inclusion in Almirola’s late crash relegated him to a 28th-place finish on Sunday, dropping him well outside of the Round of 8 cutoff and continuing a poor trend. The No. 88 team has managed to pull off top 10s in consecutive races just once this season, when they rattled off three-straight at Sonoma, Chicagoland and Daytona over the summer months. Since then Bowman has just three top 10s in 12 starts, with an average finish of 17.75.
Bearden Breakdown: Gander Outdoors 400
By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor
Post-race review and analysis from the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at Dover International Speedway.
Who Won?
Chase Elliott. He climbed through the field after an early uncontrolled tire penalty and held on with old tires through two late restarts to score his second Cup victory.
Who Claimed the Stages?
Kevin Harvick. The spring Dover winter dominated the early stages and seemed to be the driver to beat until a costly mistake on pit road trapped him back in the field.
Top Stories
Missed opportunities
Have one car strong enough to win a Cup race is good for any team.
Two is great.
Three is incredible.
Four? That’s the sort of result a team dreams of.
That very dream came true for Stewart-Haas Racing on Sunday. But it quickly became a nightmare as the laps wound down.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch led the field to green and paced the opening laps after qualifying was rained out, but it was Kevin Harvick that proved the dominant driver for the majority of the day. Harvick overtook Busch for the lead on Lap 16 and proceeded to put on a clinic, dominating the opening two stages and leading more laps (286) than he had in the prior 13 races combined.
There were a host of challengers. Joey Logano showed pace at the end of Stage 1. Teammate Clint Bowyer nearly overtook Harvick at the end of Stage 2. Brad Keselowski led briefly after taking the lead on pit road, and Aric Almirola held pace with the 2014 Cup champion early in the final stage.
But Harvick’s Ford proved too much to overcome regardless of his competitor. By the time the race entered the final 100 laps, it was clear that the No. 4 team would need to beat themselves for anyone else to have a realistic chance at a win.
Wouldn’t you know, that’s exactly what they did.
When Harvick came to pit road for what he intended to be his final stop on Lap 321, his team mistakenly broke a valve stem on his left-rear tire. That forced Harvick back to pit road a second time, trapping him a lap down. The 2014 Cup champ got back on the lead lap with the free pass after a debris caution on Lap 340, but was mired too far back in the pack to recover with the limited laps remaining.
Harvick’s issues left the battle for the win to be settled by his SHR teammates. Almirola inherited the lead after pit stops cycled through, with Bowyer and Kurt Busch not far behind. Bowyer faded back after the debris caution, but Almirola and Busch separated themselves from the field over the course of the ensuing run.
With the laps winding down Almirola seemed poised to drive off to his first win with SHR. Busch stalked the Floridian around the track, but Almirola was able to keep the 2004 Cup champion at bay.
The finish was in sight. But just as it was drawing near, a caution flag flew with eight to go.
After dominating the last stint, Almirola and Busch were in trouble. And here’s the kicker – the cause of the caution that hurt their race was their teammate, Bowyer. A brutal green-flag run saw Bowyer blow a tire, pit and still end up in the wall moments later.
“We broke and I hit the wall,” Bowyer said. “I’m just really disappointed. I’m frustrated with our day, obviously, we had a very fast race car.
“I got tore up passing a lapper and then all of a sudden we had a loose wheel, I think it was a loose wheel, and then we went back out and broke something in the front end and it was two different things.”
The subsequent caution saw varying pit strategies, with three drivers staying out and a few others taking two tires. After battling for the lead moments earlier, Almirola and Busch came to the ensuing restart in sixth and seventh, respectively.
Almirola still saw an opportunity to go for the win from the third row, but he smacked the wall coming off of Turn 2 on the restart and crashed into Brad Keselowski, instigating a late crash that yielded a brief red flag and also collected fellow playoff contenders Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman.
The crash brought an end to what little hopes SHR still had of bringing home a Dover victory.
Bowyer was out. Busch and Harvick were mired too deep in the field. Almirola continued on after the wreck, but his chance to win and secure a place in the Round of 8 was gone.
Instead it was Chase Elliott — who spent most of the afternoon outside of the top five after an early pit road penalty — that pulled into victory lane after fending off Denny Hamlin.
The highest finishing SHR car was Busch in fifth. Harvick followed in sixth, while Almirola and Bowyer finished in 13th and 35th, respectively. After combining to lead 351 of the race’s 404 laps, the quartet were left to soak in the bitter disappointment of a win given away.
Busch was the happiest of the melancholy group, having salvaged a top five that made playoff gains despite not leading a single lap on the day.
“I was giving it all I had chasing down Almirola, then the yellow comes out, and from there it just changed the course of everything,” Busch said. “It’s not even a ripple effect, it’s a tidal wave of things that happen.
“Once one yellow comes out, that goes against what everybody thought was going to happen, so Almirola could have won, we could have finished second. We ended up fifth. We have nothing to complain about.”
Harvick had a solid points day, sweeping the opening stages and scoring a race-high 51 points. But the Californian found little joy in his sixth-place run after letting a win slip away.
“I don’t really care about points,” he said. “I’d rather win.”
While Busch and Harvick were disappointed, they both left Dover with their playoff runs intact. The disappointing finishes for Almirola and Bowyer meant that they exited the Round of 12 opener outside of the current cutoff for the Round of 8. They both sit 10 points behind eighth-place Ryan Blaney heading to Talladega Superspeedway.
Almirola’s frustration was palpable after letting another win slip away, as illustrated by a photo from NBC Sports’ Dustin Long shared in the moments after the race.
“We’ve had so many opportunities and been so close and had the car to win and been in position and I don’t know, it just seems to not come through,” Almirola said. “I don’t know. I’m frustrated and mad and angry.”
Bowyer shared Almirola’s crestfallen nature, having both lost ground in the championship and ruined his teammates’ days with his trip into the outside wall.
“I’m just sick for Aric,” he said. “He had that race won. It was his win and unfortunately his teammate had trouble and took him out of it.”
The streak continues
The Cup Series has seen a host of changes since the beginning of the 2006 season. The tour has changed cars twice, playoff formats a handful of times and rules packages more often than anyone can remember.
But one thing has stayed consistent along the way – Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin pulling into victory lane.
Until this season, that is.
Johnson and Hamlin have been consistent winners throughout their Cup careers, each scoring one or more wins during every season they’ve ran full-time. The pair entered 2018 with 96 wins shared between them over the past 12 seasons, with Johnson scoring an additional 18 wins in the four seasons before Hamlin joined him at the Cup level.
Both drivers had seen peaks and valleys along the way, but through them all they’d combined to win at least three races in each season they both contested prior to 2018.
By comparison this year has been a struggle. Johnson has experienced arguably the worst season of his Cup career, with the Californian on pace for career-low marks in average finish (17.2), laps led (29), top-fives (two) and potentially top 10s (10).
Hamlin hasn’t had his worst year to date — that goes to his injury-shortened 2013, or 2011 if you don’t care to count that year — but he’s at or near five-year lows for every statistic outside of top-fives (eight) and poles (three).
The pair still earned playoff bids by virtue of their consistency. But they suffered Round of 16 exits after a subpar trio of races to open the postseason.
Playoff losses aside, both Johnson and Hamlin have seen slight returns to form in recent weeks. Johnson put together arguably his best drive of the season at the unpredictable Charlotte Roval, running up front for the majority of the race and placing himself in contention to win.
But the effort proved to be for naught. Johnson made a late mistake under braking, spinning out of the battle for the win — and the playoffs — while taking leader Martin Truex Jr. with him.
The result was a rare moment of heartbreak for the No. 48 team. Johnson had positioned himself for the sort of late-race heroics that have defined his Hall of Fame career, but by making a season-altering mistake at the end of the race the 43-year-old added a symbolic moment to what might be the worst season of his Cup tenure.
There we hopes that the veteran could bounce back the following week at Dover — which is arguably his best track — but a mistake in his No. 48 car’s setup left Johnson heading to the garage before the green flag even flew for repairs. One week after he’d been challenging for the lead and playoff continuity, Johnson was an afterthought at a track he’s conquered 11 times.
While Johnson faltered, Hamlin rose into contention. The Virginian claimed a place toward the front of the field with the laps winding down, and even found himself on the front row heading into the final restart after a successful two-tire pit strategy from his No. 11 team.
With Elliott’s reputation for poor restarts and Hamlin’s fresh rubber, the 2016 Daytona 500 champion seemed poised to deliver Joe Gibbs Racing a win. But in the end he couldn’t capitalize. Elliott had one of the best restarts of his career, and Hamlin could only watch on from second as the Georgian drove off to his first oval win.
“We ran a 23.70 on that last lap,” Hamlin said afterward. “On older tires, that’s amazing. I ran as hard as I could through 1 and 2. Then through 3 and 4, I couldn’t get beside him there.”
And so the winless streak for two of this era’s most consistent victors continues. Both Johnson and Hamlin have drawn close in recent weeks, but that elusive trip to victory lane continues to evade them.
Their next chance at a victory will come at Talladega, where they’ve each won in the past. Hamlin’s lone triumph came in the sprint 2014 race, while Johnson’s two victories came before Gen-6 car’s arrival – in 2006 and 2011.
Other Notes