Playoff Points: Sonoma Edition

By Aaron Bearden, Motorsports Editor

Following each regular season points race, Kickin’ the Tires takes a deep look at the current playoff grids for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, evaluating each team’s postseason odds and highlighting those that made steps in the right direction, as well as those who dug themselves into a hole. 

Track: Sonoma Raceway

Event: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr.

Stage Winner(s): A.J. Allmendinger, Denny Hamlin

Who Won Big

• Martin Truex Jr.: The majority of the regular season has been spent talking about Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, but Truex is sneaking into the conversation. The defending Cup champ notched his third win of 2018 at Sonoma, bumping his playoff point total up to 18.
• Kevin Harvick: Speaking of Harvick… The defending Sonoma Raceway winner came one sneaky pit strategy away from winning in back-to-back seasons at the California track. Harvick finished second, helping him crawl a small step closer to points leader Kyle Busch.
• Denny Hamlin: With four drivers combining to hold 75.2% of all earned playoff points, each bonus point proves critical for the rest of the field. Hamlin snagged one with a win in Stage 2 on Sunday – his second playoff point secured thus far.
• Erik Jones and Alex Bowman: Sonoma can be a bit of a wild card for those on or near the playoff bubble, so Jones and Bowman securing top 10s and the race avoiding an upset winner were both important outcomes. The pair are still the final two drivers in the current playoff grid, but they’re in a good position to hold their positions through the summer months.

Who Hurt Their Odds

• A.J. Allmendinger: Let’s face it – with the way they’ve been running, the two regular season road courses are likely Allmendinger and JTG Daugherty Racing’s best chances to steal a win and secure a playoff bid. So when Allmendinger’s No. 47 went up in smoke, so too did one of his few decent playoff opportunities.
• Jamie McMurray: What began with potential for an upset win ended instead in disappointment for McMurray at Sonoma. The veteran’s No. 1 Chevrolet encountered an oil pump issue early in the race, eliminating him from contention after just 33 laps and relegating him to a 37th-place finish. Now McMurray has 79 points to make up on the playoff bubble, with just 10 races to do it.
• Paul Menard: Wood Brothers Racing and Menard have shown the speed and potential to close up their playoff deficit over the summer months. But results like Sunday’s 26th-place disappointment can’t happen if they intend to make it to the postseason without a win. Menard trails 15th-place Bowman by 25 points for the final playoff spot.

Playoff Standings: 

*One or more race wins ineligible due to post-race inspection failures.

Where They Stand

(All But) Locked In

• Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin
  • Race Winners
  • Drivers up 150+ points on the playoff bubble

Safe (For Now)

• Kyle Larson, Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney

More Work to Do

• Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott

On the Bubble

• Erik Jones, Alex Bowman

Within Reach 

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Paul Menard, Daniel Suarez, William Byron, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman

Likely Need to Win

• A.J. Allmendinger, Darrell Wallace Jr., Chris Buescher, David Ragan, Michael McDowell, Kasey Kahne, Ty Dillon, Matt DiBenedetto

Playoff Points

Playoff Points Earned On-Track

Stage Points

Previous Race Results

Season Totals

*One or more stage wins ineligible due to post-race inspection failures