By Jerry Jordan, Editor
HOMESTEAD, Fla. – “Man, don’t fu– it up at this point,” said Kyle Larson, regarding what pressure he might be under heading into what is statistically a lock for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship on Sunday.
Larson needs nine points on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway to clinch his second straight championship and be the first driver since Jimmie Johnson to do so. The math is so far in his favor that the race for second is the only standings fight left. Larson leads Christopher Bell by 67 points and Denny Hamlin by 70 with one race to run.
The betting markets settled this weeks ago. Larson has been the championship favorite and the most bet-on driver in the sport all season and the price on him now is the kind that scares casual money away. Odds-wise, Larson is a negative 10,000-to-1 bet to win the title. Putting that into perspective, a gambler would have to risk $10,000 just to win a $100 profit.
Asked by Kickin’ the Tires whether he keeps track of any of it or has let himself enjoy how done the deal looks, Larson said the numbers have never reached him.
“No, I don’t pay attention to gambling odds because I don’t gamble so I don’t even know what all that means,” he said. “No, I don’t know. I just really mentally, I think us and our team have tried to block out the noise more than anything and just tried to stay focused on our goal.
“Yeah, not that any other team hasn’t done the same thing, but we’ve just stayed locked in and been able to execute. Hopefully I’ve made some people money here lately.”
A total of eight stage points on Sunday will settle the championship fight it before the final stage even starts. That means a Stage 1 finish of first, second or third makes him the champion. Suppose Larson wins zero stage points throughout the entire race, then he only has to finish 28th or better to be the champ. No driver has won back-to-back Cup titles since Jimmie Johnson and Larson would be the one to end that wait.
Larson spent Championship Media Day on Thursday in a position no other driver at Homestead shares. The Truck Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series contenders all arrived with rivals still in reach of them while Larson took questions alone because his points cushion made him a category of one. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin will take the stage for media questions on Friday.
“Yeah, it’s definitely been the most unique media day for me because in the past it’s been the Final Four and you’re there and you don’t really know, all you know is you just have to beat them on the track, where this you’re still having points involved and all that, it’s different, but then the gap that is there, yeah, I’m solo, which is a great thing,” Larson said. “But yeah, I’ll be honest, it’s an awkward sort of media day for me. But we’ve earned the right for it to be awkward. I like awkwardness, or I’m okay with it. So it’s all right.”
The cushion has not changed the plan for Sunday. Larson has won two of the last four Cup races at Homestead and he won the most recent one in March 2025 by running the race the way he always runs it at the 1.5-mile oval, up against the wall where the grip is.
“I foresee my race looking like any other Homestead race for me,” Larson said. “Try to get to the front and manage the race from there, and hopefully the first stage goes well and then you can really just race free after that.”
If the title does get settled in the middle of the race, Larson expects crew chief Cliff Daniels to keep the celebration on hold from the pit box.
“I don’t know. I hope I get to experience that at some point in the first two stages,” Larson said. “Knowing Cliff, I’m sure it’ll be locked in, like, hey, man, here’s what just happened. Let’s stay locked in, we’re going to take four tires here, and stuff like that. So I hope that’s robot Cliff on the radio and we can just stay locked in. Because still, I want to have a great day. I want to win the race and win the championship.”
For all the talk of noise blocked out, Larson admitted where the weight of the week actually sits. It is not in the car. It is in what a bad break on Sunday would erase.
“Well, I think the pressure and where it comes from would be like, man, you’ve done such great work to this point to put yourself in position. I would just hate for something crazy to happen, to eliminate all the work that we’ve gone to get ourselves in a great position to where you don’t have to score a ton of points,” Larson said. “I think that’s the pressure, like man, don’t f*** it up at this point.”
Bell and Hamlin are not mathematically out of it but both need the race of their season and help from Larson at the same time. Bell has to win and score at least 14 stage points, counting a fastest lap, while Hamlin has to win and score at least 17 stage points with the same fastest-lap math. Anything less from either of them and Larson’s nine points become a formality.