Kyle Larson has almost won the championship, and he might just be nine points away. The Homestead-Miami Speedway finale could be a competitive battle between Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. But Larson does not necessarily need to worry. In fact, even if Larson collects no stage points, a 28th-place finish will get the job done.
Last week, after finishing P9 and collecting 28 points, he already created a 67-point lead over Bell and a 70-point lead over Hamlin.
First, Larson has an average finish of 12.0 at Homestead, in 12 starts. He has won there twice, and finished six races in the top 5 and six in the top 10. The last time he went there, in March 2025, he won the race despite starting from P14. So the situation is definitely favorable for him.
Then, in the Chase format, a driver can score a maximum of 76 points in one race, with 55 for the win, 20 from the two stages, and one for the fastest lap. Every starter takes home at least one point. So if Bell produces a perfect afternoon and Larson banks nine, the two drivers finish level. Larson then takes the tie through Chase victories, and he owns three, while Bell has one and Hamlin has none. Even a Homestead win would leave Bell one short.
Larson can reach nine points in several ways.
- Finish 28th or better with no stage points.
- Score eight stage points, or seven plus the fastest lap, a total that clinches even if he crashes out.
- Finish third or better in Stage 1, which would end the fight on Lap 80.
- Finish seventh in both stages, which clinches at the Lap 165 break of the 267-lap race.
How can Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin still steal the crown from Kyle Larson?
Given that the two Joe Gibbs Racing aces have a deficit of 67 points or more, their only shot to win the championship will be winning the race. And that too, dominantly. Bell will need to outscore Larson by at least 68 points. If Larson takes only one point, Bell must win and add 14 stage points, or 13 stage points plus the fastest lap. Every extra point Larson scores raises Bell’s target by one.
- Larson scores 1 point; Bell needs 69.
- Larson scores 4 points (33rd, no stage points), Bell needs 72.
- Larson scores 8 points (29th, no stage points), Bell needs all 76.
Bell knows the Homestead track, and won there in 2023. This season he opened the Chase with a 73-point night at Darlington, a Southern 500 victory that ended a record-tying run of seven runner-up finishes.
Other than Bell, Hamlin faces an even steeper climb. He must outscore Larson by 71 points, so a one-point Larson day forces Hamlin to win with 17 stage points, or 16 plus the fastest lap. If Larson scores five, Hamlin needs the full 76. Any Larson result worth six points or more ends Hamlin’s bid, which means Larson must finish 32nd or worse and miss every stage. Hamlin also trails Bell by three points, but a Hamlin win with that stage total would leave Bell well behind.
The regular-season champion owns three Homestead wins and still chases his first Cup title. Hamlin joked that Larson’s habit of running right against the wall could end with a cut tire, and that kind of mistake is now the only real route to a Gibbs championship.