EDITOR’S NOTE: With a big $10,000 contest on the line this week at DraftKings, our NASCAR Fantasy Expert, Mark Michalek, a strong player in the fantasy sports world, will provide you with great fantasy picks to help you make the right decisions when setting your daily NASCAR team. Each week, Mark will give you the plays that could turn into big bucks, so be sure to follow his column.
By Mark Michalek, NASCAR Fantasy Expert
@MarkAMichalek
Well this has already turned into an interesting weekend for #fantasynascar. Since 13 cars failed to get through tech in time to make a qualifying lap we now sit here looking at a starting lineup with a lot of great place differential plays. With all these options starting further back it is going to make lineup construction interesting, as there are multiple options in each price range. If we have a race like last week were we only have 1 dominator there are going to be a lot of overlap with the same lineup. If we get a race with 2-3 dominators I think we will see more variance. With that being said lets getting into the picks for this week’s Ticket Guardian 500 at Auto Club.
Kevin Harvick – $11,500 – I have to admit this pick is the hardest pick to write up as you can basically replace Harvick with Kyle Busch, Truex, or Kyle Larsen. All 4 of those drivers have a chance to dominate this race and be the highest scoring driver. Its really hard to pick against Harvick right now having won the last 3 races. He was the fastest car in single lap, 10-lap, and 15 lap runs in final practice. He also had the fastest laps in the first 2 rounds of qualifying. Starting 10th again this week we could see a recap of last week were it takes sometime for him to get to the front but once he does everyone will again be trying to catch that 4 car.
Chase Elliot – $9,700 – Jimmie Johnson – $9,000 – I’m writing both of these guys up together because they were 2 of the 13 cars that failed tech and will be starting 31st and 33rd position and both will be 2 of higher owned drivers. Chase is very good at both Autoclub and its comp track Michigan. He has an average finish of 5.0 in 6 races between both these tracks. His practice speeds weren’t anything to write home about being 25th in single lap runs and 20th in 10 lap runs but with him starting 31st he only needs to finish 17th to score 40+ DK points if he finds his way into a top 10 finish he will score 55+ DK points. Jimmie Johnson on the other had has the most career wins and most laps lead here at Autoclub. I know he has been awful to start the year and it was just announced that he is losing his Lowes sponsor at the end of the year but you would have to think that this team is due to turn it around. Starting 33rd he probably has the highest floor of any driver in the race based on both his track history and his practice speeds (3rd in single lap runs and 11th in 10-lap runs). I expect both of these guys to be 2 of the top 5 scoring drivers this weekend and wouldn’t be shocked if they are the 2 highest owned drivers this week.
Kasey Kahne – $6,100 – A.J. Allmendinger – $6,000- Two more guys that failed to get through tech and will start from 34th and 32nd. Its highly unlikely that all of these guys who failed tech are going to move to the front but seeing that Jeffrey Earnhardt, Gray Gaulding, Reed Sorenson, David Ragan and Matt DiBenedetto are all starting ahead of both these guys that alone should give them decent upside for place differential points. Both of these guys have struggled so far this year so I don’t expect either to blow us away with their runs this week but in their price range and with the lack of value due to the issue with qualifying I don’t see any safer plays. Kahne had better practice speeds 26th in single lap runs and 23rd in 10 lap runs than Allmendinger 29th in single lap runs and did not make a 10 lap so I would have Kahne slightly ahead of Allmendinger.
Fantasy live- If your like me by now your looking at Kevin Harvick and seeing that you only have 6 more races to use him in you may want to go in a different direction. My thought process behind that is you want to use these guys when they have fast racecars and have a chance to win the race. Right now the only person even close to Harvicks level is Kyle Busch. Until the field catches up to Harvick you almost have to continue to play him even if that means losing the opportunity to play him later in the season. With that being said my 3 favorite drivers to use this weekend are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larsen, and Kyle Busch. Looking for the non-stud drivers of the week I like Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, and Paul Menard.