By Jerry Jordan, Editor
This past week, Chase Elliott picked up the win at Nashville Superspeedway with Kurt Busch close enough to his bumper to knock him out of the way and move up a spot for the trophy but Busch said he went soft and didn’t rough up NASCAR’s NMPA Most Popular Driver. From a bettin’ perspective, I would have loved to see Elliott moved out of the way and Busch take the win because he was my longshot pick of the week at +2800 but Elliott was my +900 favorite.
That’s right, going to the checkered flag last week if you bet my picks you had some insurance in second place that would have been a nice payoff. Still, Elliott had me making my fourth trip to the payout window this season. That puts me at 22 percent, so far, this season on picking winners. It also means I’m ahead of the game from a dollars and cents standpoint.
Kyle Larson – +575 odds
Looking at the odds this week, there are some enticing matchups I will get to in a minute but following Kyle Larson’s run in the Xfinity Series race yesterday, he gets the nod as my favorite to win today at Road America. The oddsmakers at WynnBET Sportsbook have also been kind enough to put him at +575 and although it’s not a big payout if he wins it’s still money in your pocket. Still, I wish I would have bet him when he was +900 earlier in the week.
Larson finished second, on Saturday, but was a dominant car throughout the race. He went a little wide on a couple of late corners on the final lap, lost some grip and got passed cleanly by Ty Gibbs for the win. If Larson is out front today on the final lap, I think he’ll make that No. 5 Chevrolet so wide no one can get passed him without running him completely off the track.
Before I get to my mid-tier value bet and my longshot picks, I want to direct everyone’s attention to the manufacturer’s matchup and the odds our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook have bestowed on the Toyota Racing camp. I know I picked Larson to win and he drives a Chevrolet but if bet Toyota to win the race, you’ll get five-to-one or +500 on your money. If you make any bet at all today, this should be the one, especially if you disagree with me on Larson. Think about it this way, I bet Larson to win at +575 and I have bet Toyota to be the first manufacturer to win at +500. It is impossible for both to happen but if one cancels out the other then my bet is protected unless a Ford wins and then I lose both.
Martin Truex Jr. – +2200
However, my mid-tier value bet is going to be Martin Truex Jr. at +2200. Truex hasn’t had the best of luck lately on road courses but when he was asked yesterday about Road America his demeanor changed. You could tell in the interview that he believes he has a strong car and could be a contender to win. A $5 wager on Truex would net a $110 return plus your bet returned AND if you bet a Toyota to win the race, then you pick up another $25 profit.
Kurt Busch – +4500
So, who is my longshot pick of the week? Well, I have to go back to the guy who almost parked his TOYOTA in Victory Lane last week – Kurt Busch. Per the WynnBET Sportsbook oddsmakers, Busch’s race day odds are +4500. That is less than half of what his opening odds were on Wednesday when I was reminded just how good of a road course racer he was during the ROWDY documentary shown by Fathom Events.
Remember, in 2015, when Kyle Busch was racing at Sonoma Raceway after being out for weeks with massive injuries. That was the race Kyle won but it was big brother chasing him down from behind … and maybe, possibly blocking a little. Still, the elder Busch has 14 Top 5s out of 51 starts on road courses and that includes one win.
Do things have to go right for Kurt to win this week, absolutely. But, again, he is strong on road courses, has good equipment and the odds still offer a strong payoff at +4500. And, yes, when he was at +10000 Wednesday night, I pulled the trigger with my $5. Oh yeah, if he wins and you protected your bet with a manufacturer’s bet, then you get that $25 profit, too.
Before I wrap up, I want to point out a couple of other interesting plays this week. I know I didn’t pick a Ford driver but there are some potential bets that are enticing, like Joey Logano being the top finisher from the Ford camp at +1000. That would be a bet you could make that wouldn’t affect any of the other recommendations I’ve made this week and who doesn’t like the possibility of an extra $50 in their pocket? Another bet I am looking at is A.J. Allmendinger, Daniel Suarez and Alex Bowman all sitting at +1200 as the top-finishing Chevrolet driver. If you’re not going with Larson or Chase Elliott as the favorites, one of these might be a viable option and they are only competing against the bowtie brigade. Finally, it’s not often that I throw in a long shot under matchups but Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is +30000 to be the highest-finishing Chevrolet driver – that’s a statement, not a bet recommendation.
Remember, my suggestions are based on what I see at the track and from past performances by drivers. It’s called gambling for a reason and there is no guarantee the drivers I pick will end up in victory lane. If you can’t afford to bet, then don’t. And if you aren’t 21 years of age, you cannot legally gamble, so don’t even think about it. Should you have a problem with sports betting or other forms of gaming, you can get help at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Road America Kwik Trip 250 Odds
|Martin Truex Jr||+2200|
|Bubba Wallace Jr||+25000|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||+50000|