The field dives into the first turn after the gate drop for the 450SX race at SLC1. Photo by Feld Entertainment, Inc.

2021 AMA Supercross Title Scenarios for All Three Divisions

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As the 2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross season comes to a close this Saturday night in Salt Lake City, fans are about to see three champions crowned across each division. By the looks of things, we may already know the championship winners, but we at Kickin’ the Tires have helped out by breaking down the math so you know the odds of each title contender.

Early in the season, many championship focuses caught injuries that took them out of races or the season that knocked them out of the title hunt. Riders like Adam Cianciarulo, Justin Brayton, Austin Forkner and Pierce Brown went out early or missed opening races that took them out of the championship hunt early. On the flip side, that allowed for some nice surprises like Jo Shimoda and Cameron McAdoo to currently sit in podium championship positions, both with a mathematical chance at the overall title. Others like Malcolm Stewart and Aaron Plessinger find themselves battling for a top-five championship result.

But without further ado, here are the title scenarios for all three Supercross divisions going into Saturday’s finale at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Who Can Win the 250SX East Championship?

Coming hot off his first career 250 East Supercross victory, Jo Shimoda now sits 23 points behind the championship leader, Colt Nichols. Christian Craig was only eight points back going into Round 16, but suffered a broken fibula and ankle sprain that knocked him out for the rest of the season. Here are the numbers for everyone else.

  • Colt Nichols: For Nichols to win the championship, he must make the main event and finish 20th or better to win the 250 East title. If he misses the main event, he must hope Shimoda does not win. Nichols owns the tie-breaker.
  • Jo Shimoda: To put it straight, Shimoda is in a must-win situation for the final round. If he wins, Nichols must finish 21st or worse in the main event to hand the championship to the Japanese rider.
  • Jett Lawrence: Since Craig is not racing in SLC 2, he has a chance to snag the last championship podium step by finishing 15th or better. He could also sneak into second in the championship if he gains 13 points on Shimoda. For example, if Lawrence wins, Shimoda must finish 10th or worse to move Lawrence up to second. Lawrence owns the tie-breaker over Shimoda, but is too far back from Nichols for the overall title.

What to Know About Championship Contenders for 250SX West

The second half of the season was quite the highlight reel. While Justin Cooper dominated the field and currently holds the best shot for the championship, we had others including Hunter Lawrence, Cameron Mcadoo, Seth Hammaker and Jalek Swoll rounding out the top-five. Nate Thrasher even snagged two victories in Atlanta toward the end of the year. Here are the numbers for the championship podium.

  • Justin Cooper: Cooper must finish 16th or better to win the 250SX championship. If he misses the main event, H. Lawrence must not finish on the podium and Mcadoo cannot finish second or win. Cooper own the tie-breaker across all three riders.
  • Hunter Lawrence: H. Lawrence must finish second or better to have a chance at the championship. If he wins, he will need Cooper to finish 18th or worse. A second place finish will require Cooper to finish 21st or worse to snag the championship.
  • Cameron Mcadoo: McAdoo is in a must-win situation if Cooper makes the main event. If Cooper misses the main, he must finish second or better AND finish ahead of H. Lawrence to win the championship.

The 450SX Championship Battle Comes to Salt Lake City

The first half of the season looked strong for Ken Roczen, but the second half of the year has been all Cooper Webb. Can Webb get his second 450SX championship, or can Roczen pull a magic trick out of the hat? Let’s look at the numbers.

  • Cooper Webb: Webb is 22 points up on Roczen, so a finish of 19th or better locks his second 450SX championship.
  • Ken Roczen: Roczen is in a must-win situation if Webb makes the main event. Otherwise if Webb misses the main, Roczen can win by finishing second as well.
  • Eli Tomac: the defending 450SX champion has locked in third place in the 450SX championship. He is too far behind Roczen to gain second, but also a large enough gap ahead of opening round race winner Justin Barcia to fall back to fourth.

Tickets are on sale for the season finale on Saturday May 1st in a limited-capacity, pod-seating format. Fans can also catch the action live streaming on Peacock and NBCSN or watch the re-broadcast on NBC the following day on Sunday May 2nd. Qualifying is set to begin at 2:00 PM MT.

Justin Schuoler
Justin’s experience starts back in the mid-90s racing dirt bikes and ATVs. He won a local championship in 1999, and competed in multiple endurance grand prix races across Southern California. In 2015, he shifted from two wheels to four wheels, winning his first sprint kart race and finishing second in that championship. Now he works as a race official with that very club while working on making a comeback to the track. Simultaneously, his journalism career began with NASCAR and Supercross. First started with Speedway Media, he now works as the web developer and tech manager for Kickin’ the Tires. He met his significant other at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and after he and Rachel married in 2018, they together have covered west coast races in karting, Supercross, NASCAR, drag racing, dirt racing, World of Outlaws, and even a visit to his original motocross club.

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