NASCAR’s next three Chase races at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte could reshape the 2026 Cup Series championship battle, with Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin entering the crucial stretch just one point apart.
Larson holds the strongest historical record among the leading contenders at the three venues during the Next Gen era, while Hamlin has delivered exceptional results on intermediate ovals this season.
With seven races remaining in the championship, the next three weekends will present drivers a chance to build a significant points advantage before the final four events.
The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway will start off the stretch on September 27, followed by the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 4. The series will then head to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on October 11.
Larson’s historical performances will be the highlight of the next few races given his ability to compete at these venues.
According to NASCAR’s statistical analysis, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has posted a 9.2 average finish and a 109.3 Driver Rating across 15 to 23 starts at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte’s oval configuration since the Next Gen car’s introduction in 2022.
Hamlin follows closely with a 9.8 average finish and 107.5 rating over the same period. However, those figures reflect past oval performances and do not directly measure either driver’s prospects on Charlotte’s upcoming road-course layout.
Hamlin’s 2026 results illustrate a different picture. Across five races at Kansas, Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte’s oval, and Chicagoland, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has recorded an outstanding 2.6 average finish and 128.2 Driver Rating.
His consistency will become even more apparent across a broader group of eight intermediate tracks, where he has collected three wins and maintained a 4.9 average finish through nine races.
Larson has endured comparatively inconsistent results on those tracks this season, with a 16.2 average finish across the expanded sample. His pair of 34th-place finishes at Texas and Chicago contributed significantly to that figure.
Christopher Bell will also enter this stretch with encouraging statistics. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver sits fourth in the standings, 17 points behind Larson, and has maintained a 104.5 Driver Rating on the five core intermediate ovals this season.
His 11.0 average finish across the same track group in 2025 and 2026 further fuels confidence.
Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick will have to face an entirely different challenge. The 23XI Racing driver trails the championship leader by 61 points despite recording a 108.4 Driver Rating on the core mile-and-a-half tracks this year. He also won the spring race at Kansas in April, giving him a recent win there.
Joey Logano’s Bristol victory elevated him to third in the standings, just 16 points behind Larson, but his 20.4 average finish and 60.9 Driver Rating across the five core intermediate races spotlight the struggles he’s had on those tracks this season.
His historical performances present a different perspective, but his team must address its recent shortcomings to maintain its championship position.
The Chase’s revised format will play a crucial role, especially in the upcoming races. NASCAR awards 55 points for a victory and determines its champion through cumulative points across the 10-race postseason, without eliminating drivers between rounds.
As a result, strong finishes and stage points at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte could substantially shift the standings before the series heads to Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville, and the championship finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.